How Biden’s Escalation in the Persian Gulf Could Lead to War with Iran

A Dangerous Game of Chicken

The Biden administration is risking a war in the Persian Gulf by sending thousands of more troops to the region, and reportedly contemplating the option of deploying US troops on commercial vessels, to deter Iran from seizing them. This would be a radical and reckless move that could ignite a serious conflict with Iran.

The US has not deployed troops on commercial vessels since World War II, according to former CIA official Paul Pillar, and even during the “tanker war” in the 1980s, when the US aided Iraq as both sides attacked oil tankers, this did not happen. The US is considering this drastic step in response to an increase this year in Tehran’s attempts to seize commercial vessels, according to Politico. But this narrative is incomplete and biased, as it ignores crucial context and history.

The Root Cause of the Escalation Cycle

The main cause of this current dangerous escalation cycle between the US and Iran is the ongoing all-out US economic warfare against Iran, which was initiated by Trump in 2018 when he withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, which was a landmark nonproliferation deal that put strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program. The Trump administration’s stated goal was to block all Iranian oil exports, the lifeline of its economy, in a blatant effort to collapse an economy that supports 85 million people.

That has not happened, though US sanctions have inflicted immense suffering in Iran. However, Iran has also been counter-escalating, because in international relations, actions have reactions and opponents get a say! It has signaled that if its oil exports are being targeted, it will target other oil exports out of the strategic Persian Gulf sealanes, through which a fifth of hydrocarbon exports pass. The Iranian seizures are defensive, which is the critical detail overlooked in much US mainstream press coverage.

The US Seizure of Iranian Oil

The US has repeatedly seized Iranian oil cargo in recent years, and literally sold it and pocketed the money for itself. As Paul Pillar recently wrote, “It was the United States, not Iran, that began the latest round of going after another nation’s tankers and seizing its oil.” This was when it captured an Iranian oil tanker in April, which is currently anchored off the coast of Texas, with reports saying that US companies are hesitant to unload it for fear of Iranian retaliation. In response, Iran confiscated the Suez Rajan afterwards, an oil tanker bound for the US.

The Inevitable Outcome of Maximum Pressure

By now escalating in the Persian Gulf, Biden is doubling down on the failed maximum pressure policy started by Trump. The logical outcome of this policy of pressure for pressure’s sake with no diplomatic exit strategy will be war inevitably. Even if neither side wants it, the deployment of more troops, stealing Iranian oil, and putting US troops in harm’s way creates a volatile situation for an escalatory spiral that will inevitably lead to war if not stopped.

The Need for De-Escalation and Diplomacy

What is needed instead of this escalation by Biden is serious efforts at de-escalation. The US must end its economic war, which has had immense humanitarian consequences, and seek a new diplomatic settlement that restrains Iran’s nuclear activities and secures sealanes. Notably, Iran’s supreme leader recently emphasized the importance of secure seas for all. It is clear neither side wants war, but avoiding it requires the US foremost to make the concessions necessary for peace.